Malaria Epidemiology and Dynamics in the Mampong Municipality of Ghana, (2015-2023).

Abstract

This study examined malaria trends using data from health facilities in the Asante Mampong Municipality of the Ashanti Region, assessing different age groups, genders, and geographical clusters (rural, peri-urban, urban) settings. A retrospective crosssectional study was employed to analyze the disease trends, patterns, and dynamics in incidence and prevalence and the implications for future malaria control and elimination planning from 2015 to 2023. Results showed that malaria prevalence cumulatively stood at 15.38% and exhibited significant year-on-year increases, with children under five and those aged 5-14 being the most affected groups (29.67% and 32.77%), respectively, far above the national prevalence (8.36%). Malaria prevalence peaked in 2020 (19.73%), with a significant reduction in 2021 (15.70%) and 2022 (14.88%), spiking in 2023 (17.15%). Geographical cluster analysis revealed substantial differences in malaria risk, with towns in the Ejura Cluster (Rural) having the highest relative risk (RR = 10.99), followed by the Kofiase Cluster (Peri-urban) (RR = 5.93) and the Jamasi Cluster (Periurban) (RR = 4.22), compared to Mampong Town (Urban) (RR = 1.00), the reference cluster. Gender disparities were also significant, with females showing slightly higher incidence (55.93%) but lower prevalence (12.77%) compared to (20.76%) for males. Seasonal variation analysis indicated higher malaria prevalence during the rainy season April-July). The findings also revealed a strong association between climate and vegetative factors, topography and human activities, and malaria transmission. A forecast analysis showed a continued upward trend in malaria cases if the current intervention strategies remain unchanged. The model projected an increase in prevalence from 2024 through 2026, estimating values of approximately 18.7%, 19.4%, and 20.1% for these years, respectively. Therefore, enhanced tailored community-based intervention strategies should be deployed to improve access to healthcare, environmental management and vector control initiatives, and targeted interventions for high-risk groups. These findings provide essential data to guide future regional malaria control efforts.